Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-03-18 | Nevada v. San Diego State -130 | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
San Diego State is playing its best basketball. The Aztecs have won five in a row with the winning margin being nearly 16 points per game. |
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03-03-18 | Georgetown +19 v. Villanova | 73-97 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Villanova has no reason to play especially hard in this lopsided matchup, especially following consecutive overtime games in which their starters logged heavy minutes. The Wildcats don't have a lot of depth and must not burn out their starters with the Big East Tournament approaching. Georgetown usually can be counted on to play hard. The Hoyas have been at their best as Big East underdogs covering seven of eight times in that role with three straight-up victories. The Hoyas also have covered in their last four road games. |
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03-03-18 | Kansas -2.5 v. Oklahoma State | 64-82 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Never mind that Kansas has already won the Big 12 Conference crown again. The Jayhawks have had this game circled ever since Oklahoma State upset them, 84-79, as 12-point road underdogs. |
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03-02-18 | Wolves v. Jazz UNDER 208.5 | 108-116 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
The Jazz are back to being a premier defensive club with Rudy Gobert back at 100 percent. The Jazz haven't surrendered more than 100 points during any of their last eight games. During this span they are holding foes to an average of 95 points per game. The Timberwolves just lost 108-99 at Portland last night. Their starters played big minutes. So the Timberwolves won't be looking to play up-tempo. They also are without their best offensive player, Jimmy Butler. The Timberwolves are not a good defensive team, but the Jazz are averaging only 87.6 points in their last three games. |
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03-02-18 | Raptors -3 v. Wizards | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
The Raptors are the best team in the Eastern Conference right now. They are hot with 11 victories in their last 13 games and have revenge motivation for a 122-119 road loss to the Wizards last month. Washington won that despite missing John Wall. The Raptors know first-hand now how the Wizards have adjusted their style minus their star point guard. I'm expecting a much stronger defensive performance. Toronto ranks among the top eight teams defensively while being the third-highest scoring team in the NBA. The Wizards carry a higher fatigue rating playing for the third time in four days and fourth in six days. The spread is low enough to get behind the superior team that has covered in eight of its last 10 games. |
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03-02-18 | Rhode Island +2 v. Davidson | 61-63 | Push | 0 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
I see Rhode Island atoning for an embarrassing 30-point home loss to St. Joe's in its last game. The Rams have defeated Davidson four straight times, including a 13-point winner at home in their last meeting. The Rams have won 18 of their last 20 games and have covered in 17 of their last 24 Atlantic 10 games. |
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03-02-18 | Pistons v. Magic +2.5 | 106-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Fading the Pistons on the road in this spread range is worth a small play. Detroit has lost 19 of its 28 road games. The Pistons' last road victory came against the Nets back on Jan. 10. Detroit is 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS in its last six away contests. The Pistons have covered just 27 percent of their last 34 games versus sub .500 opponents. Orlando is playing hard. The Magic hung in against the Thunder and Raptors, during their last two games, and are 3-3 ATS in their six home games, including a straight-up victory against the Cavaliers. The Pistons' strength is up front with Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin. They are weak in the backcourt. The Magic can match up to the Pistons up front with a healthy Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon. Rookie power forward Jonathan Isaac could provide a spark and needed defensive help as he's expected to play after missing the last 26 games with an ankle injury. The Magic rolled past the Pistons when they last hosted them winning, 102-89 on Dec. 28.
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03-02-18 | Pennsylvania v. Yale +1 | 79-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Penn is playing well. But so is Yale. The Bulldogs have won five of their last six. The Bulldogs also are in revenge mode for a 59-50 road loss to Penn in the previous meeting this season. |
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03-01-18 | Wolves v. Blazers -4.5 | Top | 99-108 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
The Timberwolves are 2-0 since their on and off court leader Jimmy Butler suffered what likely is a regular season-ending knee injury. Those victories have come against the Bulls and Kings, two of the worst teams in the NBA. Now the Timberwolves face their first real test since Butler went down: a road game against the Trail Blazers, who have won four in a row. I don't see Minnesota passing this test. This isn't a good time to be playing on the road against the Trail Blazers, who are are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games. Damian Lillard is playing as well as anyone in the NBA averaging 37.1 points in his last six games. Portland is jockeying for playoff position and should encounter little trouble scoring big against the Timberwolves. The Timberwolves rank second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. Portland is averaging 111.2 points in its last four games. Minnesota is a poor road club, too. The Timberwolves are 14-17 ATS away from Target Center, failing to cover in six of their last eight road matchups. They are 0-3 SU and ATS during their past three visits to Moda Center, including losing 123-114, to Portland on Jan. 24.
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03-01-18 | 76ers v. Cavs -155 | 108-97 | Loss | -155 | 17 h 45 m | Show | |
Is it time to trust the Cavaliers? I believe so, at least in this spot. As terrible as the Cavaliers were laying points during the first half of the season, they still won and covered their two earlier meetings against the 76ers winning by an average of 14.5 points. The retooled Cavaliers are a better team now having traded for George Hill, Jordan Clarkson, Rodney Hood and Larry Nance Jr., who is coming off his first double-double with Cleveland. Give LeBron James weapons that fit and improve team chemistry and Cleveland is a legitimate threat again to win the Eastern Conference. The 76ers have taken the big step of being a playoff team this season. However, they rank below the elite teams of the Eastern Conference - Raptors, Celtics and Cavaliers. Philadelphia is much better at home. They are 1-6 in their last seven road games. The 76ers still lack the maturity to beat tough foes on the road whether it's shooting poorly, or committing too many turnovers. This marks the 76ers' fourth game in six days, too. Cleveland has dominated this series winning 14 of the last 15, including the past 11. James just doesn't lose to this team.
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03-01-18 | Lakers v. Heat -3.5 | 131-113 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 6 m | Show | |
Miami is a top-four defensive team that is well-coached and has a solid bench. The Lakers are fancy with a lot of youth and questionable maturity. The situation sets up well here for the home Heat. Miami has been home since Saturday. The Lakers are fat and happy winners of three in a row. Note that those victories have come against the tanking Mavericks, Kings and Hawks. The Lakers have had a couple of days to enjoy the distractions of South Beach. LA is 1-4 ATS the past five times when playing on two days rest. The Lakers also have failed to cover during seven of their past nine visits to Miami. The Lakers are nine games below .500 on the road. I see the veteran Heat being the more focused team. They can't afford a loss here holding on to the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Miami's front-court and bench strength just improved with the return of center Kelly Olynyk from a shoulder injury. Dwayne Wade has made his presence known, too, with his savvy play. Miami surrenders 101.6 points per game. Only three teams allow less per game. The Lakers are giving up an average of 117 points during their last six game
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02-28-18 | Nevada -3 v. UNLV | Top | 101-75 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
Nevada is much the better team, has a far superior coach and this is the Wolf Pack's Revenge Game of the Year. UNLV handed Nevada its lone home loss of the season, winning 86-78 three weeks ago. That loss came in front of Nevada's eighth-largest crowd in Lawlor Events Center history. The Wolf Pack were missing their top scorer, Caleb Martin. He was out with a foot sprain. Nevada didn't play well, though. and the Rebels shot a blistering 50.8 percent from the floor. Credit to UNLV because it did play extremely well in that game. This is a bitter, bitter rivalry. UNLV, a classless program, did a lot of trash talking during and following that win. The Wolf Pack haven't forgotten. They've been pointing to this matchup ever since. Martin is back and will play. Reno hasn't been swept in a season series by the Rebels since 2012-13, which was its first year in the Mountain West Conference. UNLV has a size advantage on the Wolf Pack. But Nevada can take advantage of UNLV's weak transition defense. Nevada has won the Mountain West Conference title already, but the Wolf Pack will be focused and highly motivated for this game. Nevada coach Eric Musselman said he won't be resting anybody that his team will be going all out. Musselman is a far better coach than UNLV's Marvin Menzies. UNLV has lost and failed to cover its last three games, including losing to Fresno State, 77-64, as a two-point favorite during its last home game. The Rebels don't have the home attendance they used to have because of the decline in their program. They have covered only two of their last 10 home contests.
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02-28-18 | Pelicans v. Spurs -4.5 | 121-116 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
Back from their annual rodeo trip, the Spurs are playing at home for the first time in 25 days. I'm expecting a strong effort. San Antonio last played on Sunday. The Spurs won't play again until Saturday. Focus won't be an issue. San Antonio has covered 63 percent of its home games this season. The Spurs have been far better at home than on the road. New Orleans is playing its best ball of the season. The Pelicans are only 1 1/2 games behind the Spurs for fourth place in the Western Conference. San Antonio definitely is going to perceive a challenge here. I have a lot of faith in Gregg Popovich, who I regard as the best coach in basketball. The Spurs went 2-4 on their road swing. However, their last game was a confidence-inspiring 110-94 victory against the rejuvenated Cavaliers. Kawhi Leonard remains out for San Antonio. But unsung point guard Dejounte Murray is developing into a star. The Spurs have the coaching, depth, right situation and spot to cover this number.
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02-28-18 | Thunder -4.5 v. Mavs | 111-110 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
The Mavericks upset the Pacers, 109-103, at home this past Monday. That ended a four-game losing streak and makes the Mavericks a bit fat and happy for this matchup. Dallas hasn't not won back-to-back games during their last 18 games. Oklahoma City's superstars have been complaining about not getting enough calls. That could change here. The Thunder hold the star power and rebounding edge to cover this number. They also have revenge motivation. The Mavericks upset the Thunder, 116-113, on New Year's Eve in Oklahoma City. Dallas also whipped the Thunder at home early in the season. The Thunder haven't been good as chalk this season - big chalk that is. As favorites of five points or fewer, the Thunder have covered 10 of the last 13 times.
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02-28-18 | Ole Miss v. Kentucky -8.5 | 78-96 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
Kentucky has picked a good time to get back untrack. The Wildcats are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games. During this span, they have posted double-digit victories against Alabama, Arkansas and Missouri. |
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02-28-18 | Illinois v. Iowa | 87-96 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Iowa is a great fade now that it is tournament time. The Hawkeyes are 2-7 in the Big Ten Tournament under Fran McCaffrey. They have lost in the first round the past four seasons. |
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02-27-18 | Kings +12 v. Blazers | 99-116 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
I don't see Portland taking Sacramento that serious following the Kings' 118-100 home loss to the Timberwolves last night. The Kings, though, have covered in their last four away matchups. They catch the Trail Blazers in a flat spot. Portland is playing at home for the first time in two weeks. Portland has bigger games on deck, too, hosting the Timberwolves on Thursday and Thunder on Saturday. Sacramento can't match Portland's backcourt star power, but the Kings have some promising youth - DeAaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovich and Willie Cauley Stein - to go with veterans Vince Carter and Zach Randolph and decent bench players in Buddy Hield and Skai Labissiere. They've helped the Kings go 8-4 ATS the past 12 times Sacramento has been a 'dog of five or more points.
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02-27-18 | Oklahoma v. Baylor -3 | 64-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Baylor is playing better since losing 98-96 to Oklahoma during the first meeting between the two teamsd. The Bears are 5-2 SU and ATS since that loss. |
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02-26-18 | Texas Tech v. West Virginia UNDER 141.5 | 74-84 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
The Under has won in 10 of Texas Techs last 13 road games. I see that trend continuing in this matchup, which shapes up to be a tight, intense defensive struggle. |
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02-26-18 | Pacers -135 v. Mavs | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -135 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
Not only are the red-hot Pacers playing their best ball, but they catch the Mavericks reeling from a double body blow of their owner Mark Cuban admitting his team is tanking and sexual misconduct allegation in the Dallas front office. The Mavericks are toxic right now. They aren't a very good home team either with an 11-19 record, 13-17 ATS. The Pacers have their season-best winning percentage. Indiana is 15-6 in its last 21 games. The Pacers have won four in a row and have a strong record of beating poor teams going 21-8 versus sub .500 opponents. They are 6-1 ATS the past seven times laying points on the road. The Mavericks are 2-11 in their last 13 games and 3-14 in their last 17 games. Dallas is last in reboundings. Indiana has improved its rebounding with Myles Turner back to 100 percent. The Pacers rank in the top-five in field goal percentage and 3-point shooting. Dallas is giving up an average of 113.8 points during its last six games.
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02-26-18 | Suns +7.5 v. Pelicans | 116-125 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
I understand it's difficult to pull the trigger on the Suns especially when they are on the road. But this is a golden spot for Phoenix. The Pelicans are playing for the third time in four days. They defeated the Heat in overtime at home on Friday. New Orleans followed that up by coming back from an 18-point second-half deficit to beat the Bucks in overtime on the road Sunday. Anthony Davis played 43:21 minutes and Jrue Holiday logged 41:31 minutes against the Bucks. It's likley Davis and Holiday, the Pelicans' two best players with DeMarcus Cousins out, are going to see a reduction in minutes. If the Suns aren't competive early, the backdoor should swing wide open during garbage time as the Pelicans are in a huge letdown spot not only because of the situation but also playing the bottom-feeding Suns. The Pelicans are 1-8 ATS the past nine times hosting a foe with a losing road mark. New Orleans takes off for a four-game road trip following this matchup beginning with a tough game against the Spurs on Wednesday. So focus also is an issue for New Orleans and Alvin Gentry isn't one of the better coaches in the league. The Suns nearly upset the Trail Blazers in their last game losing 106-104 this past Saturday. Recently acquired Elfrid Payton continues to play well for Phoenix.
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02-25-18 | Rockets v. Nuggets OVER 225 | 119-114 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
The Houston Rockets are the second-highest team in the NBA. The Rockets just put up 130 points on the Nuggets when the teams last played on Feb. 9. |
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02-25-18 | 76ers v. Wizards -125 | Top | 94-109 | Win | 100 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
Washington has defeated Philadelphia seven times in a row at home. I expect that streak to continue. The number is short because the 76ers have won a season-high eight games in a row and the Wizards are minus John Wall. Philadelphia, though, won six of those games at home. The 76ers have a losing road record. The 76ers have played weak competition lately. Their last four games have been against the Magic, Bulls, Heat and Knicks. This represents a big step up. Philadelphia also is playing without rest. Joel Embiid has played only twice in his pro career on back-to-back games. Washington is 8-3 without Wall. So the Wizards haven't missed their star point guard as much as perceived. The Wizards won't lack for motivation. Not only are they off an embarrassing 122-105 home loss to the sub .500 Hornets two days ago, but have double revenge against the 76ers. The Wizards had just upset the Cavaliers on the road on Thursday. So the spot was terrible for them against the Hornets. Both of Washington's losses to the 76ers were on the road, including a 115-102 loss on Feb. 6. The 76ers shot a blistering 55.6 percent from the floor in that game. The Wizards are above average in defensive field goal percentage and rank third in 3-point defense.
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02-25-18 | Penn State v. Nebraska -117 | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
Nebraska has been a monster money-maker this season. This has been especially so at home where the Cornhuskers have covered 10 of the past 11 times. All together, the Cornhuskers have covered an amazing 14 of their last 16 Big Ten games. |
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02-24-18 | Arizona v. Oregon -2 | 93-98 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show | |
The Ducks received a huge boost in confidence beating 25th-ranked Arizona State on Thurday. But the major part of this handicap is a fade on Arizona, which is likely to be minus second-leading scorer Allonzo Trier, who was declared ineligible by the NCAA this week for testing positive for a banned substance. The Wildcats have a much bigger problem than this, though. There's the real possibility that their best player, Deandre Ayton, could be suspended along with head coach Sean Miller. The latest news is all about an FBI investigation into the Arizona program with Miller and Ayton at the center of the storm. This obviously is a huge distraction.
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02-24-18 | Bulls v. Wolves -6 | Top | 104-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
I don't expect Jimmy Butler to play after he injured his knee in the Timberwolves' 120-102 road loss to the Rockets last night. Butler's injury has had a drastic affect on this line. Too much in my view. The Timberwolves still have the three best players on the court in Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Jeff Teague. Minnesota has been dominant at home going 13-1 SU, 10-4 ATS with the lone loss occurring to the Rockets during this span. The Bulls are a far cry from the Rockets, who I consider the second-best team in the NBA and very close to the Warriors. Chicago has lost 10 of its last 12 games and has failed to cover in nine of its last 11. One of those victories, though, was against the Timberwolves at home, 114-113, on Feb. 9. The Timberwolves want revenge in what has become a grudge matchup because of Butler and Tom Thibodeau's former ties to Chicago. The Bulls are committed to rebuilding, even tanking, benching Robin Lopez and Justin Holiday in favor of Cristiano Felicio and David Nwaba. Cameron Payne also is seeing more time at backup point guard.
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02-24-18 | Massachusetts v. George Mason OVER 147 | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
The Over has cashed in 68 percent of George Mason's last 63 home games. I'm going to ride that string. This should be a loosely played game featuring lots of scoring. UMass's defense has gone downhill. That's reflected in the Over cashing during UMass's last eight games. The Minutemen have surrendered 82 or more points in each of their last eight games. |
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02-24-18 | Magic +9.5 v. 76ers | 105-116 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
The Magic's two best players, Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon, are healthy now. Both should be better in sync after getting in a game following the All-Star break. The 76ers are a viable playoff team. But I don't like them in this high of a point spread range. Philadelphia has failed to cover eight of the last 11 times versus opponents with a winning percentage below .400. Philadelphia has three big road games on tap starting with Sunday's matchup against the Wizards. That's followed by a Tuesday game against the Heat and then Thursday versus the Cavaliers. So this isn't an all-out spot for the 76ers. Orlando is well below the radar spread-wise covering its last eight road games while going 13-4 ATS in its last 17 overall games.
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02-23-18 | Spurs +4 v. Nuggets | 119-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
I'll take Gregg Popovich against any coach given extra prep time, which is the case here. The Spurs have had nine days to think about a 117-109 road loss to the Nuggets in their final game before the All-Star break. San Antonio had defeated Denver five straight times before that loss. The Nuggets caught the Spurs playing without rest after having been at Utah the night before. So that marked two consecutive games in high altitude. The Spurs also were minus LaMarcus Aldridge, their best player with Kawhi Leonard out, and Rudy Gay in that game. Aldridge should play for sure here. The Spurs have traditionally fared well in Denver covering in 21 of their last 29 visits.
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02-23-18 | Clippers -4.5 v. Suns | Top | 128-117 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
The Clippers have already played a game following the long All-Star break losing 134-127 to Golden State on the road last night. The Clippers are more experienced, professional and deeper than the Suns, an opponent they have dominated winning 15 of the past 17 times. This includes a 2-0 mark this season with the average victory being by 27 1/2 points. The Suns are in the argument for worst team in the NBA. They are tied for the fewest victories with 18 and have lost 12 of their last 13 games and 15 of 17. Of the Suns' past 13 losses, 10 have come by double-digits. The Clippers have regained legitimate playoff contender status going 13-6 in their last 19 games. They are 5-2 since dealing Blake Griffin to the Pistons for Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley. LA steps way down in class here after just playing the Warriors. There should be no fatigue factor for the Clippers having been idle for so long before playing last night. There will be a rust factor, though, for the Suns. There's also a maturity issue for the youthful Suns to see how they react from being off since Feb. 14.
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02-23-18 | Cavs -5 v. Grizzlies | 112-89 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers are much improved since acquiring George Hill, Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. at the trade deadline. They are better defensively, younger and more athletic. They also have better chemistry. I was surprised when Cleveland lost last night at home to Washington. Memphis, though, isn't nearly as good as the Wizards. The Grizzlies, in fact, are tied for the fewest wins in the league with an 18-38 record. The Grizzlies have dropped seven in a row. They are facing the cold reality of missing the postseason for the first time in eight years. The Cavaliers are not only the better team but have stronger motivation and the edge of already having played a game following the nine-day All-Star break.
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02-23-18 | Celtics -115 v. Pistons | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
Detroit is 5-3 since acquiring Blake Griffin. The Pistons are tough up front now with Griffin and Andre Drummond. But their backcourt is weaker minus traded Avery Bradley and with Reggie Jackson sidelined. The Celtics can exploit this. Boston gets back defensive ace Marcus Smart from injury and astute Brad Stevens has had more than a week to game plan. I consider Stevens the top coach in the Eastern Conference. Even if the Pistons are improved following the Griffin trade - and that can't be fully determined yet - they still are a borderline playoff team at best and they hold a losing record. Boston is two levels higher than Detroit and is in the discussion for being the best team in the East. The Celtics limped into the All-Star break having lost three straight home games. I expect Stevens to right the ship following the long break. The Pistons are playing in their new Little Caesars Arena, but their homecourt advantage is overrated. They have failed to cover in 11 of their last 13 home contests. Boston has covered in its last four visits to Detroit.
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02-23-18 | Harvard +1.5 v. Princeton | 72-66 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
Harvard is on an 8-3-1 against the spread run. The Crimson just rolled past Princeton by 15 points two weeks ago. Now look at the line. So I definitely believe there is value on the Crimson. |
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02-23-18 | St. Peter's v. Quinnipiac -118 | 52-43 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
The Bobcats of Quinnipiac have covered in seven of their last nine games. I like them to beat St. Peter's at home. The Bobcats have strong revenge motivation for an 84-58 road loss to St. Peter's back early last month when they weren't playing as well. |
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02-22-18 | Wizards v. Cavs -5 | Top | 110-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
Cleveland is 2-0 against Washington this season - and this is when the Cavaliers' roster and chemistry was much worse than it is now. Spread-wise, the Cavaliers were the most disappointing team in the league pre All-Star break. But now the rebuild Cavaliers are much different and much better. They have won four straight games since retooling their roster getting young, more athletic and better defensively. Cleveland's offense hasn't suffered either. The Cavaliers are averaging 126 points during their four-game win streak. This is Cleveland's first home game, too, with its new fully integrated roster. The Wizards couldn't beat the Cavaliers when they had John Wall and I don't see them hanging close without him especially given the circumstances that line up here.
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02-22-18 | Nets +7.5 v. Hornets | 96-111 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
The Hornets are just 15-15 at home. They are a lottery team just like the Nets and have no business laying this many points. The Nets limped into break losing seven in a row. They should come back rest, refreshed and rejuvenated. Brooklyn also should be at full strength with Rondae-Hollis Jefferson and Caris LeVert expected to play after being out. Jefferson is an especially underrated player for Brooklyn. Brooklyn showed no quit last season winning 11 games after the All-Star break. The Nets have the fifth-best spread mark in the NBA and have covered seven of their last 10 road contests. There's a randomness factor, too, with both teams coming off a long break. Randomness is good when backing an underdog. Charlotte had a distracting bye week with the decision to look for a new general manager. The Hornets also have failed to cover the past six times after being idle for three days or more.
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02-21-18 | San Diego State v. Air Force +8.5 | Top | 67-56 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
In terms of straight-up record, Air Force is a bottom-three Mountain West Conference team. Point spread-wise, though, the Falcons are very strong. They have covered in nine of their last 12 league games and are 7-1 ATS at home this season. This coincides with San Diego State being a bad road team. The Aztecs are a middle-of-the-pack Mountain West team that is strong at home, weak on the road where they are 1-6 in conference play. This includes losses during their past five away matchups. San Diego State enters this matchup fat and happy after burying UNLV, 94-56, at home this past Saturday. That was the Aztecs' most lopsided victory against the Rebels in the 69-game history of the series. Now the Aztecs draw ninth place Air Force and last place San Jose State. So this doesn't shape up as a challenging week for them. The Falcons are going to be the more motivated team. They have revenge for an embarrassing 81-50 road loss to San Diego State from 18 days ago. Air Force only was able to shoot nine free throws in that game. Air Force upset New Mexico, 100-92, in its last home contest. Air Force has been on the road its past two games losing to UNLV and Boise State. Now the Falcons are back home. They are 16-5-1 ATS following a loss. The Falcons have covered four of the last five times against San Diego State at home, including winning straight-up last season, 60-57, as 6 1/2-point home 'dogs. They are 9-2 (82%) ATS the past 11 times versus San Diego State.
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02-20-18 | Rutgers v. Ohio State UNDER 129 | 52-79 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
Rutgers is a premier defensive team giving up the 12th fewest points in the country. But the Scarlet Knights are horrendous on offense and going against Ohio State's top-50 defense. |
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02-20-18 | Illinois +16 v. Michigan State | 61-81 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Michigan State has covered just one of its last eight games. The Spartans could be distracted by Senior Night and still on Cloud Nine after rallying from 27 points down to beat Northwestern this past Saturday in the greatest comeback in Big Ten history. Illinois lost to Michigan State by 13 points in the first meeting despite the Spartans shooting a record 68.2 percent from the floor. The Illini have played better since that loss and should have their confidence up after snapping a four-game losing skid with a win against Nebraska on Saturday. Illinois is 5-1-1 ATS during its last seven visits to Michigan State, too.
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02-19-18 | Youngstown State v. Northern Kentucky -16.5 | 51-70 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
Northern Kentucky is coming off a loss. I see the Norse being fired up to bury a very bad Youngstown State. The Penguins are giving up more than 87 points per game during their last seven games. Northern Kentucky has the potent offense to take advantage averaging nearly 77 points a game. The teams met earlier at Youngstown State and Northern Kentucky won by double-digits. Now the Norse are home off a loss. They are 4-1 ATS following a loss.
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02-19-18 | Miami-FL v. Notre Dame UNDER 140 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
Minus star guard Bruce Brown Jr., Miiami has averaged only 52.5 points during its last two games. The Hurricanes are going to have to be patient and hit their shots if they want to pull an upset because Notre Dame has committed the fewest fouls in the country and fewest fouls per game. Notre Dame, though, has its own key injury as Bonzie Colson remains out. Matt Ferrell has been playing great, but can't be expected to score a career-high 37 points like he did in Notre Dame's last game, a victory against Boston College. The Irish play at a slow tempo, which is good for the Under, and Miami has the fourth-ranked defense in the ACC giving up 66 points per game. The Hurricanes also rank in the top-30 in the country in 3-point defense.
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02-18-18 | Team LeBron v. Team Stephen UNDER 341 | 148-145 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
In each of the last four years the total points in the NBA All-Star Game has been broken. The culmination was last year's game won by the West, 192-182. Those 374 combined points are the record. So why go Under the total this year? Because the league wants this game to become less farcical and more of a competitive matchup. That means intensity and some defense sprinkled in among the dunks and 3-point bombs. The league changed the format to where the All-Star rosters were picked by LeBron James and Stephen Curry. That could increase the pride level. The prize money for the winning team has been doubled, too, from $50,000 to $100,000. Six-figures isn't chump change even for NBA superstar millionaires. Several players have said these changes should increase the quality of play. I'm certainly not expecting playoff-caliber defense and intensity. But I am anticipating more than just what has been a glorified scrimmage. Yes, there still will be a lot of easy baskets scored. But with a total this high just a few minutes of cold shooting, or increased defensive pressure, is all that is needed to make this an Under.
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02-18-18 | Penn State v. Purdue -7.5 | 73-76 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
Purdue is in stop-the-pain mode having lost consecutive close games to Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconson. The Boilermakers are better than Penn State, highly motivated and at home where they have won 14 of 15 times. Penn State last won at Mackey Arena in 2006, a string of 10 consecutive road losses. The Boilermakers rank seventh in the nation in 3-point accuracy at 41.9 percent yet they have made only 32.1 percent of their beyond the arc shots in their last three games. A correction is due. Penn State is just average in 3-point defense. The Nittany Lions are playing well, but a letdown could be in store following their 79-56 burial of Ohio State at home on Thursday. Purdue has dominated this series winning the past five times. |
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02-18-18 | Nebraska -125 v. Illinois | 66-72 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
I have to keep riding Nebraska, which has covered a mind-boggling 16 of its last 17 games, including its last eight games. Usually when the line is at minus 2 or less, I like to protect myself with a money line play. That's the case here especially with Nebraska winning the first meeting between these two teams by just one point. Tim Miles has done a masterful job with the Cornhuskers, who have won seven in a row and eight of their last nine. Illinois, by contrast, has lost four in a row. The Illini has allowed foes to shoot 55.5 percent from the floor during the last three games. The Illini haven't been scoring either averaging only 64 points during their last four games. Nebraska is averaging 80 points in its last five games. |
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02-17-18 | Colorado v. Washington UNDER 142 | 59-82 | Win | 100 | 17 h 1 m | Show | |
Long-time Syracuse assistant coach Mike Hopkins has brought a tricky zone defense to Washington. So it's not a fluke the defensive-minded Huskies have gone Under the total in 10 of their last 12 games. |
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02-17-18 | Loyola Marymount +10.5 v. San Francisco | 63-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
This mainly is a fade on San Francisco. The Dons are coming off a huge upset home victory against St. Mary's two days ago. It's going to be hard for the Dons to get up for this matchup in such a short time span. The Dons are 2-7 ATS following a victory. |
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02-15-18 | Utah v. Washington UNDER 142 | 70-58 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
Not only is Mike Hopkins a great coach, but he's a great Under the total coach, too, as Washington has gone below the total in nine of its last 11 games. That's because the Huskies play a zone defense similar to what Syracuse runs and what Hopkins learned when he coached at Syracuse before coming to Washington. |
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02-15-18 | Nuggets v. Bucks -3 | Top | 134-123 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
The game before All-Star break often is tougher on the road team - and Denver is not a good road club. The Nuggets are 8-19 away from Pepsi Center, including 1-7 in their last eight road contests. Their lone road win during this span was against the Suns, who I rate as the worst team in the NBA. Denver is surrendering 114.2 points a game during its past eight road matchups. This is the Nuggets' fourth game in seven days - all at different venues. It's a lot of traveling for them made worse with All-Star break starting Friday. Conversely, the Bucks are a solid home team winning 19 of 28 at Bradley Center. They are 9-2 since interim coach Joe Prunty replaced Jason Kidd. Morale and defense are much improved for the Bucks since Kidd was let go. The Bucks made a below-the-radar, but astute trade acquiring center Tyler Zeller. He can bother Nuggets big man Nikola Jokic, who is having a big February.
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02-15-18 | Ohio State +1 v. Penn State | 56-79 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
I like Ohio State in this revenge spot against Penn State. The Nittany Lions dealt Ohio State its only Big Ten loss in the first meeting with a buzzer-beating basket. Penn State missed only three of 14 shots from beyond the arch in that victory against the Buckeyes. I don't expect the Nittany Lions to shoot like that again. |
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02-15-18 | NC-Greensboro v. The Citadel +10.5 | Top | 82-66 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The Citadel has covered seven of its last nine games. The Bulldogs have posted upsets of Wofford and Furman and lost to East Tennessee State, the first place team in the Southern Conference, by just two points as a 15-point 'dog during their last three home games. Now The Citadel is another big home 'dog. This time to UNC Greensboro, which is in a dangerous situational spot. The Spartans just beat East Tennessee State at home on Monday in a huge game and has a more challenging road game against Mercer on Saturday. The Spartans have failed to cover in their last four games against the Bulldogs.
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02-14-18 | Kentucky +9.5 v. Auburn | 66-76 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
The last time Kentucky was this big of an underdog the Wildcats beat West Virginia, 83-76, as a 10-1/2 point road 'dog on Jan. 27. The Wildcats have the athleticism and talent to upset Auburn straight-up here, too. Kentucky holds a big height advantage and shouldn't be lacking for motivation with this lack of respect betting line. The Wildcats have never dropped four in a row under John Calipari. |
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02-14-18 | Lakers v. Pelicans UNDER 230.5 | Top | 117-139 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
The perception is that two horrendous defenses are facing each other in this matchup. If you go by season statistics that's true. The Lakers rank 25th defensively and just surrendered 130 points to the Mavericks, the most they've scored all season. The Pelicans rank second-to-last in points allowed per game. But the current reality doesn't fit the sterotype. The Lakers had held their four previous opponents to an average of 94.2 points a game before playing the Mavericks. Those teams were the Suns, Nets and Thunder twice. Not one of them scored more than 104 points and all three teams rank among the top 19 in scoring. The Pelicans are better defensively nowadays having traded for Nikola Mirotic and adding Emeka Okafor, a defensive-minded center who had been out of the NBA since 2012-13. The Pelicans are adjusting to life without DeMarcus Cousins and just held the Pistons to 103 points in their last game two days ago. The Pistons had scored 111 or more points in four of their last five games before losing to New Orleans. A key to the Pelicans' defensive success against the Pistons was Mirotic's fine work guarding Blake Griffin. The Lakers are dealing with a rust factor since they last played on Saturday. The extra time should help them defensively with added preparation, but three full days off isn't a positive for their shooting.
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02-14-18 | South Florida v. UCF OVER 123.5 | 57-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Much has changed for Central Florida with Tacko Fall out. Since he's been injured the Over has cashed in five of the Knights' last six games. Fall may have been the premier defensive player in college basketball. So when I see a low total like this, I'm looking to go Over. |
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02-13-18 | LSU v. Alabama UNDER 148 | 65-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
Alabama is a great Under team at home going below the total in 73 percent of its last 60 home contests. The Crimson Tide are strong defensively again this season giving up 68.3 points a game, which ranks 74th in the nation. Alabama ranks No. 1 in the SEC, too, in points per possession defensively. LSU was held to 66 points at home by Alabama in the first meeting. The Tigers are averaging just 65 points during their last three road games.
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02-13-18 | LSU +7.5 v. Alabama | 65-80 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
LSU is coming on winning two of its last three, including an impressive 82-66 victory against Mississippi this past Saturday. |
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02-13-18 | Hawks +7.5 v. Bucks | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
Atlanta is in an ambush spot catching the Bucks in their first home game since returning from a four-game road trip. The Bucks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games and minus key contributors Malcolm Brogdon and John Henson. The Hawks are below-the-radar going a much more respectable 8-9 during their last 17 games. Both teams average the same amount of points per game at 104. The Hawks have a good history, too, in Milwaukee covering in eight of their last nine visits. |
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02-13-18 | Heat +7.5 v. Raptors | Top | 112-115 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
Toronto has been a play-on team especially at home. Toronto has the best record in the Eastern Conference and the No. 1 home record in the NBA. The Raptors have won five in a row with their average winning margin being 21 points during this span. So why buck the Raptors? Spot, line value and Miami's track record in these instances. While the Raptors were destroying the Hornets at Charlotte on Sunday in their last game, the Heat were resting. Miami last played on Friday. You know that with the Heat you're going to get good coaching and game preparation from Erik Spoelstra, a top-seven defense, strong team effort and solid bench play enhanced with the addition of Dwayne Wade. The Raptors have lost only four home games, but one of them was to the Heat. Miami has a winning road mark, own a 15-7-1 ATS record the past 23 times playing Eastern Conference foes and have covered in five of its last six away games. The Heat also are 22-7 ATS during their past 29 road games versus foes with a winning home record. I want all this going for me. I like the spot, too, I perceive the Raptors being a little fat and happy while the fully rested Heat should be in line for a strong performance. This isn't by any means a fade on the Raptors. It's a play on the Heat with what I believe is enough line value to get involved.
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02-13-18 | Maryland v. Nebraska -112 | 66-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Nebraska doesn't receive any respect in the marketplace or from the oddsmaker. All the Cornhuskers do is cover spreads, though. The Cornhuskers are a mind-boggling 15-1 ATS in their last 16 lined games. |
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02-12-18 | Knicks +12 v. 76ers | Top | 92-108 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
The Knicks aren't just tough to back on the road, but anywhere these days riding a six-game losing streak with only one cover during this span. But there's enough line value to get behind New York in this division matchup. Philadelphia has opened its five-game homestand with three straight wins and covers. The 76ers finish their homestand against Miami on Wednesday. The 76ers have become a playoff team because of the tremendous talent of youngsters Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. But Philadelphia doesn't have the maturity and that much talent to cover double-digit spreads without playing very well. This is a flat spot for the 76ers. Philadelphia has already dropped games to bottom-feeders, including the Kings twice, Nets, Suns, Grizzlies and Lakers. New York lost its best player, Kristaps Porzingis, for the season to a torn ACL. So the Knicks are in rebuild mode, which means minutes for hungry youngsters looking to make their mark such as their point guards, rookie Frank Nitlikina and newly acquired Emmanuel Mudiay, who was impressive in his Knicks debut Sunday in a 121-113 loss to Indiana. Fatigue shouldn't factor for the Knicks since they were idle Friday and Saturday. Michael Beasley has fulfilled Porzingis' role by averaging 18 points and 10 rebounds in two games replacing him. Beasley actually has played well during the entire season and now his role is greatly enhanced. Enes Kanter is having a big year and Tim Hardaway Jr. is healthy and underrated. The Knicks are a level higher than the NBA's worst dregs. They also have covered 11 of their last 16 games at Philadelphia. There's always the possibility of the 76ers resting the fragile Embiid. This will be the 76ers' third game in four days. Embiid hurt his knee in the 76ers' 112-98 win against the Clippers Saturday sitting out several minutes. He did return to the game. But the 76ers may choose to be careful with their franchise center in what appears to be an easy game for them especially with a tougher matchup on deck. The 76ers have a losing record when Embiid hasn't played.
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02-12-18 | Notre Dame +10.5 v. North Carolina | 66-83 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
This is too many points for North Carolina to be laying carrying a high fatigue rating and in a letdown spot. The Tar Heels are in letdown mode after posting victories on Thursday against Duke and North Carolina State on Saturday. |
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02-11-18 | Mavs +15.5 v. Rockets | 97-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
I wasn't looking to step in front of the Rockets, winners of seven in a row, including burying the Nuggets, 130-104, this past Friday. Dallas isn't going to have Dirk Nowitzki, Wesley Matthews and backup point guard J.J. Barea for this matchup. The oddsmaker is begging to get money on the Mavericks and the marketplace has made Dallas even more inviting by betting the Rockets up. So I'll oblige by firing on Dallas at what I believe is an inflated number. Only once in their last 27 games have the Mavericks lost by more than 15 points. The teams last met on Jan. 24. The Mavericks were 6 1/2-point home 'dogs and lost 104-97. The Mavericks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games against opponents with a winning home mark. Dallas also has covered in eight of its last 11 away matchups. The Mavericks had their best offensive showing of the season in beating the Lakers, 130-123, at home against the Lakers last night. So they should enter this division game with confidence. Not having Matthews is tough. He may be the Mavericks' best overall player, but Nowitzki isn't worth anything on the line being far over-the-hill. The Mavericks have some underrated talent with Dennis Smith Jr., Harrison Barnes, Yogi Ferrell, Dwight Powell and newly acquired Doug McDermott. Of course these players can't compare to the Rockets' loaded lineup headed by superstars James Harden and Chris Paul. But the Dallas youngsters should be counted on to play big minutes - and to play hard. Houston doesn't have any special incentive or motivation for this game. The Rockets, in fact, should use this game to cut back the overextended minutes of their star players since this is their fourth game in six days and they have a much more challenging game on deck when they play the Timberwolves on the road Tuesday. The Rockets have failed to cover in five of their last six home games versus foes with a losing road record.
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02-11-18 | Raptors -3 v. Hornets | Top | 123-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
Normally an early start time would be bad for the road team. But the visiting Raptors have been idle since Thursday while the Hornets just flew back into Charlotte early Saturday following a four-game West Coast swing that conluded Friday night when the obviously tired Hornets could manage only 17 points in the fourth quarter against the Jazz in a 106-94 loss. Toronto has the best record in the Easterm Conference. Charlotte is 23-32 and playing for the third time in four days. It's doubtful the Hornets make the playoffs. The Raptors have dominated weaker competition losing just three times all season to below .500 opponents. Toronto has matched up well, too, to Charlotte going 2-0 this season winning by 13 and 18 points, respectively.
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02-10-18 | Wizards -5 v. Bulls | Top | 101-90 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
The Bulls are 2-7 since losing point guard Kris Dunn to a concussion. One of those victories occurred last night when the emotional Bulls hosted their former star, Jimmy Butler, and former coach, Tom Thibodeau. Chicago upset Minnesota, 114-113, as 7 1/2-point home 'dogs coming back from 17 points down. I don't see the Bulls being able to repeat that emtional type of performance a second straight day. Chicago is 1-7 when playing in the second of back-to-back games. Not only will the Bulls be missing Dunn again, but also shooting guard Zach LaVine, who is averaging 26.5 points in his last four games after missing 42 games due to an ACL injury. So the Bulls are going to be missing their two most talented players. Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg said he didn't want to play LaVine in this back-to-back spot so soon after his injury. The Wizards are vastly superior to Chicago missing those two players even though they remain without John Wall. The Wizards are 5-2 minus Wall during the past seven games, but those defeats have come in their last two games. They were against the 76ers on the road when they were playing without rest and to the Celtics two days ago in overtime. Washington hasn't lost three in a row all season. The Bulls have lost four in a row to Washington and are 3-10 ATS the past 13 times hosting the Wizards.
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02-10-18 | Wyoming +6.5 v. UNLV | 70-85 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
I don't trust the Rebels, nor their coach, Marvin Menzies, to cover this number in a letdown spot. UNLV is off a huge and highly-satisfying 86-78 road victory against arch-rival Nevada-Reno this past Wednesday. UNLV is 1-8 ATS following a victory. Now the Rebels take on a hot Wyoming team that has won five of its last six. The Cowboys' latest victory was 83-65 against Utah State, a team that beat the Rebels 85-78 last month.
Wyoming has covered 20 of the past 28 times when going against an opponent with a winning record. UNLV has failed to cover in six of its last seven home contests, |
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02-10-18 | George Washington v. George Mason OVER 140 | 65-72 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
George Washington has played three straight Over the totals game. Look for that trend to continue as the Colonials aren't that strong defensively, but have picked up their tempo offensively. George Mason is weaker defeinsvely than George Washington. The Patriots have gone Over in seven of their last eight games. These teams hit 148 in their first meeting won by George Washington, 80-68.
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02-10-18 | Louisiana-Monroe v. Georgia State -12.5 | 90-82 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
I see this as a kill spot for Georgia State, which has won 10 in a row with its last three victories coming by a combined 55 points. There is little chance of Georgia State taking Monroe lightly after the Warhawks upset Georgia Southern, 66-64 in overtime, as 10-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. |
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02-10-18 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +6.5 | 80-88 | Win | 100 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
There is enough value to make a play on Iowa State. The Cyclones can take advantage of Oklahoma;s defense to make this game close if not pull the outright upset. The Sooners have allowed 79 points or more in seven of their last eight games. Oklahoma also has failed to cove in its last five road contests. |
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02-09-18 | Hornets v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
Jazz minus 5 1/2 hosting Hornets You may be surprised to know that Utah owns the longest active win streak in the NBA right now with seven consecutive victories. Expect the streak to reach eight after this game. The red-hot Jazz draw Charlotte in a vulnerable spot carrying a high fatigue rating. The Hornets are playing in their fourth road game in six days while coming off a tough overtime loss last night to Portland. Charlotte last won at Utah in 2006 having lost 10 road games in a row to the Jazz. Utah has added motivaiton for a 99-88 road loss to the Hornets last month. The Jazz are playing their best ball and can make a serious move in the West with eight of their next 10 games at home. Ricky Rubio has spurred the Jazz. He played well during the second half of last season and he's continued that pattern averaging 22.1 points, 7.7 assists and shooting 53.8 percent from the floor in the last seven games. The Jazz traded Rodney Hood for Jae Crowder on Thursday. Hood is the better offensive player, but this was a good trade for Utah. Crowder is the better all-around player and fills a greater need at small forward than Hood does at shooting guard where his minutes were limited with the rise of rookie Donovan Mitchell.Crowder is expected to play against the Hornets. |
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02-09-18 | Pacers +4 v. Celtics | 97-91 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show | |
When the Pacers have Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner both healthy, which is the case here, they can be dangerous. Given this situation, Indiana is in a great ambush spot. The Pacers last played on Monday. Their game on Wednesday against the Pelicans was postponsed because of a wet floor. Indiana hasn't forgotten its last game against Boston. That occurred on Dec. 18 at home when the Celtics pulled off a one-point win when Terry Rozier stole the ball and scored a winning layup with 1.2 seconds left. It probably was the Pacers' toughest loss of the season. Oladipo, who leads the Pacers in scoring at 24 points per game, did not play in that game. Indiana is 6-2 in its last eight games that Oladipo has played in. While the Pacers should have plenty of energy and motivation, the Celtics drag themselves to Boston after nipping the Wizards in overtime at Washington Thursday night. This will mark the Celtics' third game in four days and fourth in six days. The Celtics might get caught looking ahead, too, to hosting the Cavaliers on national television Sunday. That's the game where the Celtics will retire Paul Pierce's No. 34 in a special ceremony.
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02-09-18 | Pelicans v. 76ers UNDER 220 | 82-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
The 76ers have been playing good defense surrendering fewer than 100 points per game during their last three games. They've been last in terms of tempo during their past 10 games. There's a chance Philadelphia could be without star center Joel Embiid, too. He's questionable with an ankle injury. He leads the 76ers in scoring at 23.7 points a game. The Pelicans are down DeMarcus Cousins and haven't played since Monday because their Wednesday game against the Pacers was postponed due to a leaky roof. So there could be a rust factor. The extra time also enabled the Pelcians and their new addition, Nikola Mirotic, to work on defense and game plan for this matchup.
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02-09-18 | Davidson +6.5 v. Rhode Island | 59-72 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
Rhode Island is fat, happy and rusty having won 14 in a row but not having played for a week. I see the Rams having problems with Davidson, which is off three straight blowout victories. The Wildcats are road-proven having beaten Fordham, George Mason and Charlotte while losing by one point to Dayton. The Wildcats certainly won't lack for motivation after Rhoe Island ended their season in the Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament last season. Davidson is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine conference games. |
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02-09-18 | Davidson v. Rhode Island UNDER 144.5 | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
Davidson has switched its primary defense playing more zone. It has paid off as the Wildcats have held nine of their last 10 foes to 70 or fewer points. The Wildcats have moved up to No. 2 in defensive efficiency in the Atlantic 10 Conference. The No. 1 team in the conference in terms of defensive efficiency? It's Rhode Island. The Rams figure to be rusty, too, having not played in a week. So look for points to be harder to come by than the oddsmaker believes. |
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02-08-18 | Washington v. Oregon UNDER 146 | 40-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Not only does Washington have the No. 1 ranked defense in the Pac-12, but the Huskies also are top-ranked in the conference in 3-point defense. Oregon has slowed down its tempo, but still shoots a lot from beyond the arc. The Under has cashed an unbelievable 22 times in Washington's last 26 Pac-12 games. The Under also has cashed in 18 of the Huskies' past 22 road contests. Oregon has gone Under in seven of its last 10 games. |
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02-08-18 | Celtics +2 v. Wizards | Top | 110-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
Washington isn't a better team than Boston especially minus John Wall. The Celtics have covered 64 percent of their road games. If you think that is impressive try this: Boston is an amazing 10-1 (91 percent) as an underdog this season. The Celtics will look to redeem themselves after an embarrassing 20-point loss to Toronto this past Tuesday. The good news for the Celtics is that Kyrie Irving returned from injury and Terry Rozier continued to play at a high level. The Wizards had won five in a row before running out of gas in a 115-102 road loss to the 76ers on Tuesday. The fatigue factor is still there for the Wizards as this is their third game in four days and fourth in six days. Brad Stevens is the sharpest coach in the Eastern Conference. He'll have a good game plan to adjust to the Wizards' fill-in point guards. The Celtics rank either first or second in the major defensive categories. They surrender seven points per game than the Wizards.
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02-08-18 | Duke -112 v. North Carolina | Top | 78-82 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Duke may have got caught peeking ahead to this game after losing 81-77 to St. John's in its last game this past Saturday. Expect the Blue Devils to be fully focused. They also are the better team. Duke has covered the past four times following a loss. The Blue Devils have defeated the Tar Heels in six of the last eight meetings. The Blue Devils certainly are road tested going 10-3-1 ATS during their past 14 road outings. Duke is 4-1, too, versus ranked teams this season. Duke leads the nation in scoring averaging nearly 90 points a game. North Carolina is 1-3 in its last four games giving up more than 80 points in each of its losses during this span. Duke can hurt the Tar Heels from long-distance as North Carolina ranks 324th in 3-point defense.
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02-08-18 | Knicks v. Raptors UNDER 211.5 | 88-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Early money has come on the Over in this matchup and I disagree with the line move. The Knicks are not a good road team - they've scored 90 and 73 points in their last two away matchups - and now don't have injured Kristaps Porzingis. The Knicks score 3.4 points fewer per 100 possessions without their scoring star. Toronto is a top-10 defensive club that plays its best defense at home ranking in the top-five in points per 100 possessions. The Knicks lack the scoring and penetrating point guards to dent Toronto's defense. The oddsmakers are calling for a blowout here. If that occurs, the Raptors would be able to rest DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowery, their two best offensive players.
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02-07-18 | UNLV +9.5 v. Nevada | 86-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
UNR has the best frontcourt in the Mountain West Conference with Jordan Caroline and twins Caleb and Cody Martin. But UNLV can counter that with 7-foot-1 Brandon McCoy, who is five inches taller than Caroline. McCoy is backed by Shakur Juiston, another good frontcourt player. The Wolf Pack haven't faced a big man as talened as McCoy this season. The Rebels have double revenge, which means a lot in this bitter intrastate rivalry. The Rebels are capable of posting big wins such as defeating Utah by 27 points. They have been at their point spread best as underdogs taking Northern Iowa, Arizona and Boise State to overtime all as a 'dog. The Rebels have the offense - ranking in the top eight in scoring and shooting percentage - along with the athleticism and talent to hang in against the Wolf Pack.
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02-07-18 | CS-Northridge v. Cal-Irvine UNDER 131.5 | Top | 56-77 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
Cal State Northridge is a huge Under team. The Matadors are 16-4-1 to the Under in their last 21 games, including 7-0 to the under in their last seven Big West Conference games. |
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02-07-18 | Nets +9.5 v. Pistons | Top | 106-115 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
Brooklyn has some below-the-radar talented players. But the oddsmaker never gives the Nets much respect. Brooklyn is 19-36. Spread-wise, though, the Nets have the second-best ATS mark in the NBA. Brooklyn is at its point spead best, too, on the road where it constantly gets undervalued. The Nets have covered 62 percent of their away matchups this season. The Pistons are playing their best ball winning four in a row. They will have the two best players on the court in Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond. Brooklyn, however, has some emerging young talent with D'Angelo Russell back healthy, breakout-guard Spencer Dinwiddie, emerging rookie Jarrett Allen and intriguing Jalil Okafor. It's a bonus if Rondae Hollis-Jefferson can suit up having missed the past six games with a groin injury. The Pistons are at their worst when laying big points going 2-8 ATS the past 10 times as chalk of four or more points. Detroit also is 1-10-1 ATS at home versus opponents with a winning percentage of less than .400. It's going to be easy for the Pistons to overlook the Nets especially with the Clippers on tap. Detroit hosts LA on Friday. Normally that would be a ho-hum nonconference matchup, but it has turned into a grudge game following the Clippers trading Griffin to the Pistons for Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley.
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02-06-18 | Thunder v. Warriors -10 | Top | 125-105 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
Darn this spread is high. But I want the Warriors going for me here being rested in a huge revenge spot and drawing the Thunder at low ebb. Oklahoma City embarrassed Golden State, 108-91, at home on Nov. 23. The Warriors don't get embarrassed too often. That also was the only time during the past eight meetings the Thunder have covered against the Warriors. The Warriors should be fresh being idle for two days. The Thunder, by contrast, will be playing for the fourth time in six days. They are 1-4 since losing underrated Andre Roberson, their best defender, for the season because of a knee injury. This is a big number to lay. Understand. But the Warriors have the offense to overcome it ranking No. 1 in the major scoring categories, including points, shooting percentage, free throw percentage and 3-point percentage. The Thunder have allowed each of their last three opponents to make at least 13 3-pointers. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant are all in line for big games.
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02-06-18 | Suns +8 v. Lakers | 93-112 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
The Suns aren't going to have Devin Booker, who is their best player by far. But the Lakers are in a letdown spot and still will be minus Lonzo Ball. This is the Lakers' first home game since returning from a five-game road trip that concluded Sunday. They are coming off wins against the Nets and Thunder. The underdog and road team has covered the last four in the series. The Lakers lack the maturity to cover this big of a number in the letdown spot they are in. |
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02-06-18 | Missouri v. Ole Miss -120 | 75-69 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Mississippi is in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row, including getting blown out by Tennessee in its last game. Missouri, on the other hand, is in a letdown spot after beating Kentucky for the first time this past Saturday. The Rebels figure to push pace, which is bad news for the depth-shy Tigers, who have only eight healthy players on scholarship. Mississippi has covered six of its last seven home games.
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02-06-18 | Nebraska +1.5 v. Minnesota | 91-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
Nebraska has covered in its last seven road games. Minnesota is having a disastrous season. |
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02-06-18 | Wizards +6 v. 76ers | 102-115 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
The Wizards are 5-0 since losing John Wall to a knee injury. It's kind of ironic that Washington is playing its best ball since losing its best player. But the Wizards are doing a fantastic job of passing the ball recording 27 assists in each of their last five games, a franchise record. I prefer the 76ers taking points rather than laying. Philadelphia is 1-4 in its last five games. The 76ers have a lot of youthful talent that could be unfocused entering this matchup after all the celebrations going on in Philadelphia following the Eagles winning the Super Bowl.
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02-06-18 | Rockets v. Nets +10.5 | 123-113 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
There are two key handicapping factors when it comes to beating the NBA - sometimes going against logic and taking advantage of situations. Both apply here. The Rockets should bury the Nets - on paper. But this spot sets up well for Brooklyn. Houston goes from just having impressively beaten the Spurs and Cavaliers in nationally televised games to playing the 19-win Nets and their cast of no-names. The Rockets also have a much tougher game on deck when they play at the Heat on Wednesday. Before dispatching the Spurs and Cavaliers in double-digit style, the Rockets hosted the Suns and Magic. Those two teams have fewer victories than Brooklyn. The Rockets defeated the Suns by 11 and Magic by seven. Houston has covered only 32 percent of the time the past 29 times against sub .500 opponents. The Rockets also have failed to cover in five of their last six meetings versus the Nets. Brooklyn has been home for the last three games going 1-2. The Nets just lost 109-94 to the Bucks this past Sunday. Brooklyn coach Kenny Atkinson ripped his team after that loss. He's optimistic the Nets will play much better in this game. I am, too. The Nets have been huge money-makers as an underdog especially when catching four or more points going 21-11 (66 percent) in that role this season. The Rockets are talented enough, though, to cover a double-digit road spread here even if the Nets produce a strong effort. It's only fair to point that out. James Harden and Chris Paul can absolutely dominate. But if the Rockets do happen to build up a big lead, there would be no reason for Harden and Paul to play big minutes with a physical game in Miami looming Wednesday. So the backdoor should swing wide open if a garbage time scenario unfolds.
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02-05-18 | Mavs +7 v. Clippers | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
Dennis Smith Jr. has started to live up to his strong rookie hype. The Mavericks have gone 13-4 ATS the past 17 times they've been 'dogs when Smith has been in the lineup. They have covered in seven of their past nine road contests and their confidence is up after ending a five-game losings skid with a victory against the Kings this past Saturday. I realize the Clippers are much better than the Kings. But Dallas gets up for this opponent still holding a justifiable grudge from when DeAndre Jordan said he was going to sign with the Mavericks as a free agent and then went back on his word returning to the Clippers. Dallas has won three of the last five in the series, including defeating the Clippers, 108-82, at home on Dec. 2. The Mavericks' bench is as good if not stronger than the Clippers' reserves bolstered by the return of sparkplug point guard J.J. Barera. He had missed three games until returning to dish off 11 assists in 24 minutes against Sacramento. |
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02-05-18 | Siena +8 v. Fairfield | 65-78 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
The premise here is simple: Fairfield isn't good enough to lay this many points in a conference matchup. Siena is the better defensive team. Siena has a good history at Fairfield going 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 visits. The Saints also are 8-2 ATS the past 10 times being on the road playing a foe with a winning home record.
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02-04-18 | Tulsa v. South Florida +7.5 | 63-54 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Tulsa isn't very good on the road and is in a letdown spot. The Golden Hurricane have won only two true away games all season. They have dropped their last four road contests and failed to cover in 11 of their last 16 away matchups. Tulsa very well could overlook South Florida, too. The Golden Hurricane are coming off a huge 76-67 home upset victory against SMU. South Florida has begun to play better. The Bulls upset Tulane three games ago so they are capable.
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02-04-18 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 209 | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Perception-wise this total looks about right. But reality-wise, it is not. The Bucks are playing much stronger defense since sacking Jason Kidd. Milwaukee is giving up an average of 97.5 points on 44 percent shooting from the floor in its first six games under interim coach Joe Prunty. During Kidd's last 11 games, the Bucks yielded 107.9 points a game on 49.4 percent shooting. Jabari Parker will be playing in his second game of the season after returning from ACL surgery. He is rusty. The Bucks are without underrated scorer Malcolm Brogdon. The Nets aren't the up-tempo they were earlier in the season. They have become more half-court with more looks inside to emerging center Jarrett Allen. During their last eight games, the Nets have played at the fourth-slowest tempo in the league. They have failed to reach 100 points in four of their last five games.
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02-04-18 | Blazers v. Celtics -120 | 96-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Portland had its four-game winning streak snapped by the Raptors on Friday night in a 130-105 stinging road defeat. Now, less than 48 hours later, the Trail Blazers are back in action for this early start. This marks their fourth game in six days all at different venues. Portland has lost five of its last seven away matchups. The Trail Blazers could be without their No. 3 guard, Shabazz Napier, due to a toe injury. Boston has won 20 of its 28 home games and is 15-11 ATS at home. It's a bonus for the Celtics if Kyrie Irving and newly-signed Greg Monroe are able to play. I'm not expecting that to happen, though. Terry Rozier has been brilliant filling in for Irving scoring 48 points, grabbing 18 rebounds, dishing off 12 assists and shooting 53 percent from the floor in the two games Irving has missed. The Celtics rank No. 2 defensively giving up 98.5 points a game. The Trail Blazers have surrendered 108 or more points in nine of their last 14 games.
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02-04-18 | Blazers v. Celtics OVER 201.5 | 96-97 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Portland has scored in triple-digits in each of its last 17 games. The Trail Blazers have one of the most explosive backcourts in the league with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, who is on fire with 71 points in his last two games. The Trail Blazers just gave up 19 3-pointers to the Raptors on Friday in a 130-105 loss. Boston ranks fourth in 3-point shots made per game. The Celtics aren't likely to have Kyrie Irving again, but Terry Rozier has been brilliant replacing him. The Trail Blazers' defense has slipped while their offense has picked up. Portland has yielded 110 or more points in 11 of its last 17 games.
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02-03-18 | Rockets v. Cavs +3.5 | 120-88 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Call it a hunch, but I believe the Cavaliers will show up hard today and protect their home floor against the Rockets. The Cavaliers just may be a better team minus Kevin Love. The Rockets are short-handed, too, with Eric Gordon out and Trevor Ariza questionable. LeBron James wants to prove that rumors of his going to the Warriors are pure speculation. His top priority is getting the Cavaliers straighten out. Cleveland has been a pure fade this season when laying points. But being a home 'dog in a game with much pride at stake is a different story.
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02-03-18 | Bulls v. Clippers UNDER 222 | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Rust, new faces and an early start time all work in favor of Under the total in this matchup. Note this is an early West Coast starting time being a day game. There should be lots of defensive energy and potential rust on offense as the Clippers have been idle since Tuesday while the Bulls have been off the past two days. The extra time off should work in favor of the defense given additional practice and preparation. The Clippers already have been through 16 different lineups and that number is rising today as newly acquired Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley are expected to make their LA debuts here. There's going to be an adjustment period as the Clippers work these two in while no longer having the outstanding, consistent scoring of Blake Griffin. Bradley also is an ace defender. The Bulls are missing point guard Kris Dunn, who remains out with a concussion. Chicago is averaging 102 points in its last four games. The Bulls no longer have Nikola Mirotic, who was their leading scorer. He was traded to the Pelicans for a bunch of players who don't figure to make major offensive contributions.
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02-03-18 | Missouri State v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 131.5 | 75-97 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
Missouri State has gone Under in 10 of its last 12 games. The Under is 10-3-1 in Loyola's last 13 games. I see that trend continuing here as these are two defensive-minded teams who go at a slow pace. That was clear in the first meeting, which Missouri State won, 64-59, for a combined 123 points. Missouri State ranks 19th on defense while Loyola is even better ranking ninth in the country. |
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02-02-18 | Warriors -12.5 v. Kings | Top | 119-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
I want the Warriors going for me here and I'm willing to lay the wood. Not only does Golden State have revenge for a 110-106 shocking home loss to the Kings from Nov. 27, but it is coming off an embarrassing 30-point road loss to the Jazz this past Tuesday. The Warriors have had two full days off to think about that horrific loss to Utah. Sacramento, meanwhile, is fat and happy having just concluded a six-game road trip with an upset victory against the Pelicans on Tuesday. The Kings haven't been home since Jan. 17, a span of more than two weeks. They have failed to cover in five of their past six home contests. Golden State hasn't lost two games in a row all season. The Warriors aren't going to lose here. The question is can they cover this high road number? They didn't have Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant when they lost to the Kings earlier. Now the Warriors have all their key players healthy. They should be highly motivated and playing one of the five worst teams in the league. So this sure spells blowout to me
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02-02-18 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 202 | 97-103 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
Miami surrenders the third-fewest points per game in the NBA. The 76ers are an underrated defensive club raking in the top-five in defensive efficiency. The 76ers' defense will be made easier by the Heat's slow tempo. Miami rates 30th in offensive efficiency during the past 10 games. Miami has failed to break the 95-point barrier during its past five games.
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02-02-18 | Heat +4.5 v. 76ers | 97-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
The Heat usually play better on weekends - 17-8 on Friday-through-Sunday games - and are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games. The 76ers are much better in an underdog role. The 76ers have talent, but are full of youth and inexperience. Already they have blown leads of 11 or more points eight times. This also is Philadelphia's first home game following a four-game road trip that ended Wednesday night. So concentration may be a problem. The Heat can neutralize Joel Embiid's impact with Hassan Whiteside, the top rim protector in the Eastern Conference. The Heat are well-coached, disciplined and have a deep bench. They make for a worthy underdog here.
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02-01-18 | San Francisco v. St. Mary's UNDER 140.5 | Top | 43-79 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
St. Mary's beat San Francisco in its two meetings last season winning 66-46 at home for a total of 112 points and 63-52 on the road for a combined 115 points. Things shouldn't be any different in this matchup, certainly not to the extent of where this total opened.
San Francisco ranks 74th defensively holding foes to 67.9 points a game. The Dons are much worse offensively ranking 281st averaging 69.4 points per game and ranking 306th in field goal percentage at 41.8. San Francisco does not play at a fast tempo and figures to really struggle at this tough venue. The Dons are going to have problems getting any easy baskets with St. Mary's 7-foot star Jock Landale patrolling the middle. The Gaels lead the nation in defensive rebounding. St. Mary's rates 28th-best in the country in defensive scoring holding foes to 65.2 points a game. The Gaels have won 16 in a row. They are going to control tempo here - and that tempo is not going to be fast. The Geals play at an extremely slow and deliberate pace. That pace is perfect when protecting a big lead, which the Gaels should build. |
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02-01-18 | Bucks v. Wolves -5.5 | 89-108 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Minnesota has won its last 10 home games. The Timberwolves, however, have dropped their last two games, both on the road. So they are in stop-the-pain mode. The Bucks will be minus Eric Bledsoe. Milwaukee is 4-0 since letting Jason Kidd go. However, they've been very fortunate during this span. That 4-0 record is deceiving as they've played three lottery teams and the 76ers minus Joel Embiid. |
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02-01-18 | Grizzlies +8 v. Pistons | 102-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
There's a buzz in Detroit today with Blake Griffin set to make his Pistons debut. But this buzz can't hide the fact the Pistons are 1-8 in their last nine games, have failed to cover the past five times they've been favored and they no longer have Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley, their two leading scorers. They were traded to the Clippers as part of the deal for Griffin. The Grizzlies have signaled they are in rebuild mode after declaring their intentions to sit out Tyreke Evans until he can be traded. Mike Conley is out for the season. But Memphis still is a strong defensive team - ranking sixth in fewest points allowed per game - and have been playing well covering seven of its last nine games. Memphis opened its current road trip with a four-point road loss to Indiana Wednesday. Now they are nearly getting that many points against the Pistons, who have been much worse than the Pacers. Griffin could make a difference, but there's going to be an adjustment period. Memphis 7-1-1 ATS the past nine times following a loss. The Pistons aren't good enough to cover a spread this high. They are 2-5-1 ATS the eight times this season they've been favorites of six points or more. They are 1-5 in their last six home games and 3-13-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning percentage below .400.
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